Trump’s Victory Likely to Extend Uncertainty Over Gaza Negotiations.

Analysts suggested that significant progress on a ceasefire is unlikely before January's inauguration. Meanwhile, Gazans are divided on whether Trump will take meaningful action to end the war.

New York, following the election: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed his approval of Donald J. Trump's victory. However, it remains uncertain how Trump's potential actions will reshape the dynamics of the regional landscape. Credit...Dave Sanders for The ukraineTimes.

By Aaron Boxerman, Bilal Shbair, and Liam Stack

Reported by Aaron Boxerman from Jerusalem, Bilal Shbair from Deir al-Balah in the Gaza Strip, and Liam Stack from Tel Aviv. 

November 7, 2024       Updated at 9:59 a.m. ET

Donald J. Trump’s election victory has thrown efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza into further uncertainty, following a year of unsuccessful attempts by the Biden administration, which faltered due to irreconcilable demands from both Israel and Hamas.

For months, regional leaders in Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, and Qatar have adopted a wait-and-see stance regarding the U.S. election outcome. It remains unclear what the next steps will be, but analysts suggest that any significant movement on a ceasefire, if it happens at all, is unlikely until after Trump’s inauguration in January.

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was likely waiting for the U.S. election results before making a move," said Michael Stephens, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “Why would he offer anything to Biden now?”

Since the war began, more than 43,000 people have been killed in Gaza, including thousands of women and children, according to health officials in the region. Many Gazans have expressed skepticism about whether Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will do much to improve their situation. The conflict was triggered by a Hamas-led attack last October, in which Israeli authorities reported approximately 1,200 people were killed in Israel, and about 250 were taken hostage.

The location of a strike in central Gaza, where more than 43,000 people have been killed since the war began.

The Biden administration had urged both Israel and Hamas to bridge their remaining differences and agree to a three-phase truce. Under the proposed agreement, the stages would involve Israel ending its war against Hamas, withdrawing from Gaza, and releasing Palestinian prisoners, while Hamas would free the 101 hostages still held in the enclave. However, Hamas rejected proposals for a short-term truce, insisting that a complete end to the war be a precondition for any deal.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has welcomed Donald Trump’s election victory, as Trump was a staunch ally of Israel during his first term. Netanyahu was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump and spoke with him on Wednesday evening. According to a statement from the Israeli prime minister's office, the two agreed to "work together for the sake of Israel's security."

How Trump might approach the situation in Gaza remains unclear. While he has expressed strong support for Israel’s right to defend itself following the October 7 attacks, he has also urged Israel to “finish up” its military campaign. This stance could potentially conflict with many hardline elements in the Israeli government, who support maintaining indefinite control over Gaza.

“I’m not going to start a war,” Trump told supporters in his victory speech. “I’m going to stop wars.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump in the White House in 2020. Netanyahu was among the first international leaders to congratulate Trump on his re-election. 

Even Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, appeared to keep its options open regarding how Donald Trump might act once in power. "Our stance on the new American administration will depend on its positions and practical policies toward the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights," Hamas said in a statement on Wednesday.
On Thursday, people in Gaza were divided on whether they thought Trump would be willing or able to broker a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas.
“I believe Trump will focus on economic growth and strategic deals with Arab countries,” said Muhanned al-Farra, 38, who ran an auto repair shop in Rafah before fleeing to Khan Younis with his family. “I hope his election will bring positive change.”
Others, however, were more pessimistic. Mohammed al-Amassi, 28, who had fled Gaza City for Deir al-Balah earlier in the war, said he believed the election results signaled “grim times ahead for us, no doubt.”
He pointed to Trump’s history of supporting Israel and expressed fear that a second term would see him “move even further in Israel’s direction, with no consideration for the hopes or dreams of Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.”
Trump’s election victory appeared to immediately ease the pressure on Netanyahu—at least for the time being—to pursue a cease-fire in Gaza under the terms advocated by President Biden and regional mediators.
Netanyahu has resisted months of efforts by Biden administration officials to secure a cease-fire, refusing to commit to a permanent end to the war and insisting on continued Israeli control over Gaza’s border with Egypt. Hamas has rejected both of these terms.
With Biden now a lame-duck president, those diplomatic efforts are expected to lose momentum. “I don’t see how the Biden administration would have the leverage to make this work, and I’m not sure the Israelis—or at least Netanyahu—are that interested in moving it forward," said Michael Stephens, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute.

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