It will be harder on us: Palestinians assess the impact of a potential Trump election victory.

Many in Ramallah believe the situation cannot worsen, but some fear the US election outcome co introduce even greater unpredictability to an already dire situation.uld

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A woman walks past a mural of Donald Trump on Israel's separation wall in Bethlehem, located in the occupied West Bank.

At cafes in Ramallah and falafel stands in the West Bank, the question on everyone’s mind was the same: Is Donald Trump’s potential victory a good or bad thing? For many Palestinians, however, the answer seemed clear: the result wouldn’t change much, because the situation was already as dire as it could get.

“It won’t make much of a difference,” said Eyad Barghouti, a retired university professor, voicing a widely shared perspective as the war in Gaza rages on. “What Biden did quietly, Trump will do loudly.”

Barghouti explained: “Biden would say publicly, ‘We’re not starving Gaza, we’re sending food aid,’ while still supporting Israel’s military. Trump, on the other hand, will be blunt about it—he’ll say, ‘We’re trying to get rid of these people,’ without any attempt to disguise his intentions behind humanitarian rhetoric.”

For many Palestinians, the worst-case outcomes of a Trump presidency—crushing loss of freedoms, the erosion of justice, economic collapse, and potential wars fueled by aggressive neighbors—are already a daily reality. 

Those living in the West Bank point to the constant stream of graphic images and reports from Gaza, comparing them to past human tragedies like Guernica, Dresden, or Grozny. They argue that when it comes to Gaza, the Western powers—so often criticized for their role in the region—weren’t just passive onlookers. They supplied the bombs.

“A lot of us now believe that Western ideology is a lie,” said a librarian in his 50s, who asked to remain anonymous. “They never really cared about us. What they care about is Israel’s interests. That’s the one thing they can all agree on.”

In Ramallah, while many Palestinians initially felt that Trump’s return wouldn’t fundamentally alter the grim trajectory of the region, there was still recognition that things could get even worse. 

Barghouti warned that under Trump, violence could intensify and the already volatile situation could become even more unpredictable. “It’s like a monkey holding a bomb,” he said. “You never know when he’ll throw it, or where.”

Lama Sheikha, who works at a local printing shop, agreed, suggesting that a Trump victory would only strengthen Israel’s grip on the region. “It seems more and more that Israel is the one making the decisions, not the U.S.,” she said. “The U.S. just follows along, always ready to help.

A barber in Ramallah watches the news coverage of the US election in his shop.

A Trump administration would likely be far more inclined than the current US government to support Israel’s efforts to dismantle the UN relief agency UNRWA, which provides essential services to 871,000 Palestinians in the West Bank and nearly all of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents. Trump had already cut US funding to UNRWA in 2018.

While Gaza’s economy has been devastated, the West Bank has seen a dramatic decline, with GDP dropping by more than 20% in the past year and unemployment now hovering around 35%. Things could get even worse. It is likely only pressure from the Biden administration that has kept far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from permanently withholding the customs taxes Israel collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority. Without these tax revenues and UNRWA’s support, the West Bank could become an even greater economic disaster.

At the same time, settler violence against Palestinians has surged over the past year, with many being killed or injured by militant settlers while tending to their olive groves, which are often set on fire. In the early hours of Monday, a group of masked settlers infiltrated Al-Bireh, a suburb of Ramallah, throwing petrol bombs at cars and buildings, and opening fire on firefighters responding to the scene.

One of the few measures the Biden administration has taken in recent months is to impose sanctions on certain militant settler leaders. However, their effectiveness on the ground is debatable, and they were heavily criticized by Republicans as being anti-Israeli. It’s highly likely that a Trump administration would revoke these sanctions.

“People are already leaving. They’re being forced to,” said Lama Sheikha. “Now, it will happen on a larger scale. It will be harder on us—with the economic collapse and people being attacked on their land while harvesting olives.”

She acknowledged the difficult choices facing many, but vowed she would not leave. “Whatever they do, they will not force me out of my country.”

Palestinian hopes for full nationhood, already diminished, have suffered another blow with Trump’s re-election—a development that Israeli settlers have celebrated. 

“The threat of a Palestinian state is off the table,” declared Israel Ganz, head of the Yesha Council, the settler umbrella group, in a statement welcoming Trump’s election. “This is a historic moment for the settlement movement. Now, with President Trump in office, it is time to change the reality in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] and make sure it is forever part of Israel, ensuring the security of the Jewish state.”

Although Trump has not yet assembled his team, it is expected that his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his former lawyer turned ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, will play key roles. Both are staunch supporters of the Israeli settlements, with Friedman having authored a book advocating for the full annexation of the West Bank.

Annexation is already underway, albeit by stealth. Smotrich has begun transferring parts of the West Bank from military to civilian control, a step toward integrating these areas into Israel.

Barghouti and his librarian friend agreed that a Trump White House, by emboldening the Israeli far-right, could strip away any remaining illusions about the region’s brutal realities and potentially galvanize a stronger response.

The librarian drew a parallel to the emergence of Hezbollah following Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. The Shia militia became a major force, contributing to Israel's eventual withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and 2006. He said, “We’re hoping for the same here—real resistance.

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